Tuesday, January 02, 2007

IP Almanac 2007

A Happy New Year to you all and time to dust off the old crystal ball and make some sweeping predictions for 2007.

Mobile phones - will increasingly be used as both remote controls and as credit cards, but takeup of video services will be slow during the coming year; operators will have to offer 'all you can eat' packages including TV services to attract a reluctant public.

Long form - the short form video will continue to have its place, but as users and services become more sophisticated, expect a new raft of more engaging content that suits advertising better than the three minute pre-roll.

Online TV advertising - hurrah! Here at last! A number of online ad marketplaces for video advertising similar to Narrowstep's Adserver will launch during the year and media agencies will finally put sensible budgets against accountable delivery of their TV commercials. Oh, and the TV and New Media departments will finally realise that they need to talk to each other sooner rather than later.

Traditional TV panics - as ad revenues drop like lemmings traditional TV stations and operators will realise that they need to do more than pay lip service to delivery of their signals over IP and some will begin to see that this is a cost saving opportunity. Expect serious consolidation in the TV industry to continue apace around the world and the creation of more production 'supergroups' such as Endemol and Tinopolis.

Rights wars - online services will begin to compete with traditional TV services for mainstream rights using superior distribution powers and better community relations with their customers and viewers to leverage the inflated fees they will pay.

Vlogging - hasn't quite caught on yet, but will do so increasingly during 2007 as technology makes it easier to Vlog.

Acquisitions - expect far more M&A activity than even in 2006 as the latecomers try to catch up. Niche technologies will be at a premium.

Rise of Flash, fall of Windows Media - OK, I've been predicting this for some time, but Microsoft has failed to engage with the creative community that largely produce video using Macs, and even though they're trying to make amends for stupid decisions such as not supporting WMP on the Mac, it may well be too late. (Oh, and MS still won't introduce a 64bit SDK for WMS).

Video Mashing - yes, video will be integrated in a far more interactive way with other web services. Scroll the map, click on the house you may want to buy and click to watch the video... As ever mad ideas that even I can't dream up will become the year's must see sites.

Video on eBay - they have to do it, don't they?

If 2006 was the year TV on IP 'arrived', 2007 will see it established as a professional, profitable industry, although revenues will remain modest before beginning to rise steeply in 2008 and 2009.

Any other predictions gratefully received !

Have a great year.

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