I don't think this blog has done too badly at foreseeing and foretelling the future down the years, but our longest and deepest held belief - that we were entering a narrowcasting age where new niche channels would survive and thrive has proven somewhat wide of the mark.
Indeed, through leveraging their audiences and sales machines I'd even go as far as saying that old medi has prevailed to a depessing extent.
The funding environment for media hasn't helped. Many serious investors see the whole sector as a fight to the bottom.
So, where do we go from here ?
I'm still stubbornly committed to the notion, but the context has changed.
The technologies and applications I now see succeeding are evolutionary, not revolutionary.
The knee jerk move to paywalls as a response to the paucity of ad revenue will help define the near term future of media and open opportunities.
By now I had imagined that a whole new class of Internet tv publishers would have arisen, but, as we have recently seen, our capitalist system is flawed and favour oligarchies over open markets (with people receiving so little interest and other good business begging to borrow, why has a new type of lending instituion not appeared ?).
The irony is that lack of capital and too much regulation let the big guys thrive and stop them from having to innovate too much.