Thursday, December 23, 2010

Review of 2010 Predictions

As ever, here's a review of how well or badly we did on our predictions for the IPTV industry this past year based on our predictions from the beginning of the year.

So, here goes:


Rise of Subscriptions – there is little doubt that subscriptions have it, but the business model has seen a decline in the US, with a commensurate rise in Europe. Overall, there's little doubt that there is a significant move by major content owners away from advertising, despite the sector's recovery. 7/10.

Bandwidth Blues – if you live in rural areas, 2010 was an appalling year, with throttling and service mapping resulting in dreadful levels of service. So bad that the regulators (and many consumer advocates) have stepped in and ask the ISPs to qualify their '8Mbps' claims. The coalition's recent announcement of universal 100Mbps broadband is to be hugely welcomed - but is it rhetoric or policy ? 8/10.

Cutting The Cable – In UK this is not even a concept, in the US, it is a movement. 6/10.

US takeover of UK TV market – the takeover by of Shed by Warners is just a beginning as US media companies look enviously at the ARPU rates of British customers. This is a trend that is set to grow and grow. 9/10.

Internet TV Publishers – with a few isolated exceptions, this remains more wishful thinking than reality. 2/10.

TV 3.0 - Social Television – the trend is clear, and a parallel TV world is beginning to evolve based on the cloud and not on the schedule. 8/10.

Internet TV Shopping – slowly video is becoming more important to eCommerce, but progress is surprisingly slow considering all of the benefits we've seen from adding video to eCommerce sites. 3/10.

New Formats – oh Lordy, it's becoming another battlefield of formats out there, although H.264 has a firm lead at this stage, but VP6 and all those esoteric formats such as M3u8 remain important. This part of the industry is going backwards fast, and we saw it coming. 10/10.

The Screen – when I looked to buy a new screen for my PC last month I bought an LED with iPlayer, YouTube and a whole bunch of other stuff 'built in', even though I didn't need them. The STB is as dead as the record deck, but it will take a few years for this to truly manifest itself in the marketplace. 9/10.

The Decline of Games – perhaps early days for this prediction, since the industry has been partially saved by something we failed to predict - the rise of apps. 4/10.

Not too bad, overall. Let's see how we do in the coming year. The 2011 IPTV Times Almanac will becoming up shortly.