Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Check Mate

Watching markets like the Internet TV industry evolving is like playing chess. Sometimes you can just see the end games.

The technology providers and CDNs are struggling since their prices do not enable smaller content owners to build profitable businesses on their platforms; the problem is that they are all then fighting for a small handful of broadcasters and publishers who will play them against each other and drive down prices. The winner ? YouTube and possible Yahoo!/Maven.

Content aggregators like Babblegum, Jalipo and Joost (remember them ?) have always faced an uphill struggle - largely without the 'premier league' content it takes to drive such services. They will be dealt a knockout blow by Kangaroo when it arrives with its aggregated premium proposition.

A hundred specialised advertising companies have entered the market, but clever technology is useless if you don't have massive inventory. The winner ? Google/YouTube.

Even at this early stage there remain few niches that haven't been exploited. This doesn't mean to say that there isn't money to be made, just that there are no Fool's Mates left out there.

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