Friday, January 04, 2013

2012 / 13 - clear as mud

In time honoured tradition of revisionist historians any previous predictions made were subject to the info available at the time and when the facts change, like Keynes, I change my mind. So there !

Now that is out of the way please find some indicators for the year ahead.

1. The conversion of the TV to a smart device will continue and the usage of the smart features will grow. The most popular features will be open to all devices not in walled garden environments.

2. Pressure will grow for co-ordinated enforcement and clarification of IP rules as the $200bn paid content business starts to come to terms with the value leakage through piracy that is an unavoidable by product of digital distribution.WIPO is likely to play a key role as the most global of the IP regulatory regimes (being part of the UN.)

3. Red faces will continue for investors who storm into overvalued tech companies pumped up by bankers looking for slice of somebody else's action. The metrics around asset values in the digital space are more fluid than the contents of Baldricks undergarments (this applies both ways)

4. Google will struggle to stay on the right side of Governments across the world and is likely to face ever increasing regulatory scrutiny.

5. Premium rights valuations will benefit from the competition created by new distribution channels and we may see the emergence of some global deals as it becomes more difficult to keep the territory by territory model going.