More Predictions

Here is an abstract from a report I contributed to for ABI Research:

"Consumption of both ad-supported and pay broadband video will grow strongly over the next few years as direct and third party distribution channels proliferate to give consumers more ways to access the content, according to a new study from ABI Research. The growing reach of new distribution models will expand the total consumer base of Internet video consumers from roughly 300 million today to nearly one billion by 2012. This growth will create a demand for new and evolved monetization models that will help create a multi-billion dollar industry in coming years.

Among consumers, online video is the leading form of video on their PCs. In our survey conducted in Q2 of 2007, nearly half of all consumers surveyed said they watch video in some form on their PCs, and of these consumers 72% said they watch video delivered through their browser. While only 14.5% of Internet video consumers said they have paid for video to download, this compares with just 5% of those who watch Internet video who paid for video content in October 2006.

One of the most important trends for online video will be the un-tethering of content from the PC. While the PC will lead in terms of video views throughout the forecast period, portable and TV based broadband video views will go from just 4% in 2007 to 25% of all video views in 2012. The growth of Internet attached gaming consoles, TVs and set-top boxes will drive TV based viewing, while the addition of networking to portable devices as well as increased side-loading of online content onto mobile devices will drive portable based video views.

All regions will continue to grow in terms of end-user adoption for online video, with Asia Pac leading the way. Asia Pacific will account for 43% of online video views by 2012, growing from 36% in 2007, while North America will drop from 29% of online video views in 2007 to 22% by 2012.

We also expect backend enabling technology platforms and services to grow strongly. We see the total revenue for broadband video ASP, CDN video delivery, and video ad-serving revenues to grow to $4.8 billion by 2012."